Long Range Box Office Forecast: Puss In Boots: The Last Wish, Babylon, and I Wanna Dance with Somebody – Boxoffice



Photo Credits: Universal & DreamWorks Animation (“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”); Linus Sandgren & Paramount (“Babylon”); Sony (“I Wanna Dance with Somebody”)

The final set of major releases for 2022 are on deck in this week’s report as Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Babylon, and I Wanna Dance with Somebody are set to hit theaters over the core Christmas runway.

PROS:

  • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is the first IP-driven animated film to hit theaters since July’s DC League of Super-Pets, and the follow-up to a successful to 2011 spin-off that generated $149.3 million domestically at the time. Landing one month after Disney’s Strange World, the comedy-driven toon is well timed for the holidays as the prime family option outside the Avatar sequel.
  • Babylon is leaning on the star power of Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie, as well as the critical acclaim of writer/director Damien Chazelle (Whiplash, La La Land, First Man) for an adult-driven, prestige comedy.
  • Whitney Houston fans are expected to drive I Wanna Dance with Somebody as the latest music biopic featuring the story of an international pop star. Again, this is the kind of counter-programmer that has historically done well over the holidays. Appeal to women over 35 will be key, not unlike the target of Elvis last summer, and 2019’s Rocketman.

CONS:

  • With an 11-year gap since the previous film, Puss in Boots isn’t exactly at the center of pop culture discussion in the way the character and broader Shrek franchise were in the 2000s (though a resurrection of Shrek memes among today’s youth makes for an intriguing aside to that point). Early models lean conservative for now as animated sequels, more often than not, tend to see diminishing returns in this day and age.
  • Early industry reviews for Babylon have been mixed, which is a bit of a concern since that audience should be in the wheelhouse of such a film. Period films and movies about Hollywood are also tough sells for mainstream audiences, and the three-hour-plus runtime further inspires an uphill battle for this film to connect at the box office despite the marquee names attached. Initial tracking is comparable to that of Amsterdam.
  • If there’s any notable caution toward I Wanna Dance with Somebody at the moment, it’s simply that — unlike Elvis — there isn’t an element of casting star power to help extend appeal beyond Whitney Houston fans. That’s not necessarily a detriment to potential, though, as long as reception is positive.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 11/25/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Domestic Total Low/High Range Distributor
12/2/2022 Emancipation     Apple Original Films
12/2/2022 Quintessential Quintuplets Movie     Crunchyroll / Sony
12/2/2022 Violent Night $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 $21,000,000 – $42,000,000 Universal Pictures
12/9/2022 Empire of Light (Limited)     Searchlight Pictures
12/9/2022 Father Stu: Reborn $500,000 – $1,500,000 $1,000,000 – $3,750,000 Sony / Columbia Pictures
12/9/2022 Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies (Expansion; Limited Dec. 2)     Focus Features
12/9/2022 The Whale (Platform)     A24
12/16/2022 Avatar: The Way of Water $135,000,000 – $175,000,000 $475,000,000 – $720,000,000 Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/21/2022 Puss In Boots: The Last Wish $12,000,000 – $18,000,000 $85,000,000 – $122,000,000 Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
12/21/2022 The Whale (Expansion)     A24
12/23/2022 Babylon $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 $18,000,000 – $39,000,000 Paramount Pictures
12/23/2022 I Wanna Dance With Somebody $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $65,000,000 – $115,000,000 Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures
12/23/2022 Women Talking (Platform/Limited)     United Artists Releasing

Unless otherwise noted, all above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.



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